The Bureau of Meteorology’s (BOM) long-range forecast indicates below-average rainfall for much of eastern Australia and south-west Western Australia with warmer-than-average temperatures persisting between May to July. There is also an increased chance of unusually high maximum temperatures for much of eastern Australia and parts of south-west Western Australia.
Warmer than average sea surface temperatures are forecast for much of the Australian region. The tropical Pacific has rapidly warmed in recent weeks and models suggest a possible shift to El Nino by late winter. However, the BOM would also have to see a response in the atmosphere before they consider El Nino established. It’s worth noting that while El Nino can increase the chance of drier conditions, some past records show that some El Nino years deliver average or even occasional above average rainfall.
Water levels in our eastern storages on Monday 1 June were healthy with Blue Rock Lake sitting at 78 percent, while Lake Glenmaggie was at 50 percent and Lake Narracan 74 percent. For the western storages, Pykes Creek was at 54 percent and rising with the remaining falling: Melton at 6 percent, Merrimu Reservoir at 57 percent, and Rosslyne Reservoir at 48 percent.
Groundwater and Rivers
Above average temperatures and below average rainfall across southern Victoria in autumn has impacted groundwater levels and this trend is expected to continue in the coming months.
Following low rainfall, groundwater levels are continuing to decline in some shallower bores in the south-west and central areas including the Koo Wee Rup and Deutgam groundwater Water Supply Protection Areas. Further east, groundwater levels are generally stable.
Given the predicted drier than average outlook and lower flows, streams and river flows continue to be closely monitored. Please ensure you regularly check for any rosters or restrictions on waterways in your local area - updates are available on our website.
Macalister Irrigation District
Weather conditions over the past three months have been mixed. Rainfall totals in March were above average for much of the state but April saw totals falling very much below average to lowest on record across much of Gippsland.
Storage levels in Lake Glenmaggie hovered around 62 percent at the start of March until mid-April when they began dropping steadily. Inflows into the system were at a ten-year low between March and April. This data is used in our allocation model that guides our allocation decisions. Based on the model, we took a staged approach to increasing Low Reliability Water Share allocation in April and announced 100 percent allocation in the first week of May.
Closing allocations for the Macalister Irrigation District were at 100 percent High Reliability Water Share and 100 percent Low Reliability Water Share. We announce the starting allocation on 1 July each year and review it each fortnight during the season. The current storage level is at 89,555 ML (50 percent) and falling.
The irrigation season concluded on 15 May 2026 and will recommence on 15 August 2026. During this period, asset condition assessments, inspections, and essential maintenance works will be undertaken to optimise the network ahead of the next season.
Key winter works include outlet upgrades, a series of regulator replacements, leak repairs to Newry Pipeline trash screen, erosion and cattle damage repairs, and intensive weed spraying program.
Werribee and Bacchus Marsh Irrigation Districts
The lack of rainfall hitting catchments over the summer months, together with the unavability of recycled water, has been challenging for some of our customers in the Werribee Irrigation District.
In response to the outage Melbourne Water (MW), Greater Western Water (GWW) and Southern Rural Water (SRW) have worked together to provide the Werribee Irrigation District (WID) recycled water customers with a temporary alternative water supply.
The alternative water supply is available to WID recycled water customers until mid-June 2026. SRW has secured the transfer of up to 1.3GL of SRW water from the Yarra–Thomson pool to Werribee recycled customer using GWW's water network.
Consistent with previous years where outages have occurred, SRW and MW are working together to minimise the impact of the outage this financial year. Visit our recycled water page for more information.
Meanwhile, allocation of high reliability water shares is sitting at 100 percent. The recently completed modernisation works, and increased efficiency are assisting in the interim, but rainfall is needed for the district during winter. The conditions for Bacchus Marsh are similar, with lower river levels impacting customers as well.
We will be completing phase two of the Werribee penstock upgrade between June and July during a non-supply window and completing spur 2 and 5 works in Bacchus Marsh.
Deutgam groundwater Water Supply Protection Area (Werribee)
The current groundwater allocation for 2025/6 is 50 percent. The allocation for 2026/7 will be announced on or before the 1 July 2026. If the dry conditions continue a lower allocation is likely.
Fair water for all
Water is important to everyone who relies on it and using it within entitlements helps ensure fair access across our systems. Taking water outside of your entitlement, or carrying out works without approval, can impact other customers, the environment and the operation of the wider system.
As we move toward the end of the season, we encourage customers to keep an eye on their water use and check meter readings against their entitlement. Understanding where your water use sits now can help avoid surprises at season end and provide time to address any issues if required. If you have concerns with your meter, questions about your water use, or need help understanding your entitlement, please get in touch.
Southern Rural Water will continue to monitor water use and undertake inspections across our regions. This includes following up areas where water use patterns, trading activity or previous compliance issues indicate further investigation may be needed.
Water should only be taken and used within your entitlement and licence conditions. Compliance and monitoring activities help ensure everyone is operating to the same rules, supporting fair access for all customers and maintaining confidence in the way water is managed.
Dry conditions and financial assistance support
For those experiencing drought conditions, support services remain accessible through Agriculture Victoria. These include financial and mental health support, and we would encourage you to reach out if you’re having a tough time.
We want to acknowledge that we are living and working through challenging financial times. Farming is tough enough without today’s added pressures. If you are experiencing financial hardship, please contact us so that we can make a payment arrangement that helps you.
General support
We understand our customers may need assistance from time to time. Please reach out to our Customer Service Team, who can point you in the right direction for services and assistance. Contact 1300 139 510. Alternatively, you can visit our website at srw.com.au.