The Bureau of Meteorology’s (BOM) long-range forecast for September to November shows:
- Rainfall is likely to be below average across parts of the south and east and above average across much of the western half of Australia.
- Daytime temperatures are likely to be above average south of the tropics.
- Overnight temperatures are likely to be above average for most of Australia.
A strong El Niño is now well established and continues to strengthen. All models, including the bureau's, forecast the tropical Pacific to continue warming through the southern hemisphere spring, with El Niño likely peaking in late spring or summer as a very strong event.
A strong El Niño signal in the tropical Pacific does not necessarily mean strong impacts on Australia's climate. It is one of many factors that can influence Australia’s seasonal weather and climate.
Water levels in our eastern storages on 1 September were healthy with Blue Rock Lake sitting at 86%, Lake Glenmaggie at 97% and Lake Narracan at 74%.
For the western storages, Pykes Reservoir is at 100% capacity, Melton Reservoir is at 67% and Merrimu Reservoir is sitting at 85%. Combined with favourable winter inflows, these storage levels place the district in a strong position heading into the peak irrigation period.
Groundwater and river seasonal water allocations
Winter rainfall has provided some relief across southern Victoria, although conditions have varied considerably between regions. Groundwater levels remain under pressure in some shallower aquifers following the extended dry conditions, while groundwater levels across much of eastern Victoria remain generally stable.
In the Deutgam Water Supply Protection Area, the groundwater allocation for the 2026–27 season has been set at 25%. We will continue additional monitoring throughout the season and review groundwater conditions monthly to ensure the resource is managed sustainably.
As we move into spring, the outlook remains for warmer conditions and below-average rainfall across parts of southern and eastern Australia. River and stream flows will continue to be closely monitored as temperatures and water demand increase. Customers are encouraged to regularly check for any rosters or restrictions that may apply to waterways in their local area. Updates are available on our website.
Macalister Irrigation District
The 2026-27 irrigation season commenced on 15 August. While periods of heavy rainfall in mid-August have temporarily influenced inflows, storage levels are currently sitting above the 10-year average. In a positive start to the season, a 100% High Reliability Water Share allocation was announced on 11 August, providing a strong foundation for irrigators.
From the start of the season through to 15 December, releases from the weir may be declared as spill. After 15 December, no further spill will be declared, and any available allocation to Low Reliability Water Shares will be determined from that date.
As the season progresses, water orders are expected to increase. To help ensure timely water deliveries, we encourage customers to follow our ordering guidelines and plan irrigation requirements in advance.
This winter we completed the final stage of the $62.6 million Phase 2 Macalister Irrigation District modernisation program. We’ve also upgraded key infrastructure including regulator assets along the Main Northern Channel and renewal of a critical pipeline on the Main Southern Channel to help maintain consistent water levels and flows. And we’ve treated about 32km of channels to reduce weeds and support reliable water delivery to the district
Weed management remains a key priority over the coming months. Activities will include ongoing weed spraying and channel clearing works across the system.
Werribee and Bacchus Marsh Irrigation Districts
The High Reliability Water Share allocation remains at 95%, providing irrigators with a strong level of confidence when planning water use through to December 2026.
Based on current storage levels, winter inflows and the 95% allocation, the outlook for water availability in the Werribee and Bacchus Marsh districts remains positive through to December. Provided seasonal conditions remain within forecast expectations, irrigators can expect a reliable water supply to support production requirements over the coming months. We’ll continue to monitor conditions and provide updates as required.
Climate forecasts indicating the potential for warmer and drier conditions during spring and early summer may increase irrigation demand across the district. Irrigators are encouraged to continue planning their water use carefully and maintaining efficient irrigation practices to help manage any increase in demand later in the season.
During winter we took the opportunity to complete upgrades to vital infrastructure on the Werribee River to allow remote monitoring and gate control to ensure continued reliable flows of water to the district. We also upgraded critical pipelines and installed new valves in the Bacchus Marsh district.
Irrigation district futures
Our irrigation districts are already operating at a high level of asset and service performance, following many years of investment in modernisation, automation and improvements to the way we deliver water.
While there are still opportunities to make smaller improvements to efficiency, reliability and customer service, the gains available from simply doing more of the same are becoming increasingly limited. This means our focus is shifting towards the bigger opportunities that will shape how our services operate into the future.
Through work linked to our Corporate Plan and 2028 Price Submission, we will continue to look at how our operating models, technology, assets and customer services can evolve to meet changing customer expectations, climate conditions and future demand.
Dry conditions and financial assistance support
We want to acknowledge that we’re living and working through challenging times. If you’re experiencing financial hardship, we’re here to help. Please contact us so we can look at making a payment arrangement that supports you.
Support is also available through Agriculture Victoria. This includes financial and mental health support. We encourage you to reach out if you’re having a tough time.
General support
We understand there are times when our customers may need a little extra assistance. Please reach out to our Customer Service Team, who can point you in the right direction for services and support. Call us on 1300 139 510 or visit our website at srw.com.au.